Reposting article by Antonio Prata a Brazilian Columnist

This was published in the New York Times as an Op-Ed piece on Oct. 21, 2104

I like to say that: “Estamos todos de rabo preso”.  And if that is true, I think we need to look at the institutional and cultural environment that promotes, condones, tolerates and readily accepts our “bad behavior”.

Here is the article:

Op-Ed Contributor

Brazilians Are Shocked, Shocked at Corruption!


We Brazilians suffer from a curious cognitive dysfunction, which occurs with the same frequency in our population as lactose intolerance does among the Japanese, or the inclination for punning among the English. We have the ability to be outraged by corruption, while engaging in our own petty versions of it.

As the second round of presidential voting approaches on Sunday, this evil is spreading like an epidemic. In bars, on the streets and on social networks, advocates of Dilma Rousseff, the Workers Party candidate for re-election, and Senator Aécio Neves, of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, never tire of reminding us of the “robberies” that their rivals commit.

Workers Party supporters cite the re-election scandal in which Social Democrats were accused of bribing congressmen to approve a constitutional amendment allowing Fernando Henrique Cardoso to compete again for the presidency in 1998. Social Democrats’ supporters mention the “Mensalão,” a case in which congressmen allied with the Workers Party regularly received money diverted from Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s illegal campaign contributions. Those not involved in the party squabbles tend to blame all the politicians, as if the politicians were a separate species, able to corrupt our reputable citizens.

Our citizens don’t really need the help.

My introduction to Brazilians’ cavalier attitude toward corruption came through family. When I was about 7 years old, we went to a Sunday lunch at my uncle Arthur’s. Arthur (not his real name) was my richest uncle, and he lived in a house with a pool. During lunch, he proudly told our family he had found a way to turn off the water register in front of the house and could now fill his pool for free. I do not remember any member of my family reprimanding him.

Today, my uncle is retired, and he sends me angry emails about the corruption in the Workers Party government.

I would like to believe that the country’s advancements in recent decades have made us more ethical, but that is not the case. A friend of mine, a lawyer in her 30s, has a hairdresser’s license so she can get discounts on shampoo. She is a partner in a tax law firm and earns enough in a year to pay for shampoo for three future generations of her family.

A psychoanalyst whom I consulted years ago proposed to charge me less if I paid for my sessions in cash, thus allowing him to bypass the tax authorities.

In Rio de Janeiro, when you ask a taxi driver for a receipt, the usual response is, “What value do you want me to put in?” The reason being, the driver can give you a receipt with an inflated charge that allows you to steal 10 or 20 reais from your employer. Of course, in return for this “favor,” he expects a small percentage in cash.

Even when we go to the movies, Brazilians find a way to bend the rules — if there is a line we will look for a friend who is in a better position and think nothing of jumping ahead. But on Facebook and Twitter, the two parties, or politicians in general, clearly are to blame for all our adversities.

Sure there have been advances in the 20 years that the parties have been in power. Under Mr. Cardoso (1995-2003), hyperinflation ended, the Brazilian real was strengthened, and the economy improved. Mr. da Silva (2003-2011) and Ms. Rousseff (2011 to date) deepened and extended social programs that have lifted more than 40 million people out of poverty. These advances, however, were made without putting an end to old problems: spurious alliances to obtain the majority in Congress, the exchange of favors, cronyism and corruption. These are traces of a country that emerged 514 years ago as Portugal’s overseas pantry, where men were making money far from the law, the church and their wives — first, by exploiting pau brasil (a red tree whose sap was used to dye fabrics and that lent its name to our country), and after that by planting sugar cane, trafficking in slaves, and mining for gold and gems. Much of the disregard for consequences and of the expediency practiced by these explorers still exists today.

Am I the only Brazilian free of these traits? Of course not! Last year, I bought a refrigerator. The store said that, in addition to the delivery, they could install it for 450 reais. I thought that was expensive, and said I would do it myself. When the fridge arrived, however, I realized I couldn’t handle it.

The delivery man coughed and proposed: “If you want it, I can install it now, for 100 reais, but the people from the store cannot find out.”

“Sure,” I nodded. Uncle Arthur would have been proud of me.

The other day, looking at that fridge, I realized that it is an image of today’s Brazil: powerful, showy, forward-looking, but working on the old connections we insist on perpetuating. President Rousseff or Senator Neves will win the election, but it will take longer to solve the problems that hold back Brazil from being a great country.

Antonio Prata is a columnist for the newspaper Folha de São Paulo.


O Futuro Chegou

Amanha tem eleicao.  Creio que a Dilma vai ganhar.  Nao por merito, especificamente, mas porque o Brasileiro eh essencialmente conservador e ainda nao ve o motivo ou o beneficio de uma alternancia de poder no momento.  Valeu o discurso da Dilma listando avancos tipo Pronatec, escolas tecnicas, Mais Medicos, MCMV, nivel de emprego e a promessa de manutencao dos programas sociais tipo bolsa familia.  O discurso Tucano focando principalmente a corrupcao e inflacao como pontos negativos da Dilma tem ressonancia mas o eleitor ainda nao tem confianca que Aecio e aliados sao isentos e tem a qualificacao para mudar o quadro para o melhor.  Entao na duvida, fica com a situacao.  Eh sempre a vantagem de quem ja ocupa o cargo.  O reflexo na hora eh que nao adianta votar contra que no maximo vai dar na mesma.

A politica em si eh a complexa interrelacao entre o moral e o material na distribuicao e controle do poder.  Muitas pessoas da minha geracao inicialmente apoiaram Lula e o PT como uma forca ou ideia moral.  O PT era tido como um partido ideologico com solidas credenciais de honestidade, pelo menos em comparacao com as elites da burguesia brasileira.  Salvando as execoes, o conceito de honestidade foi para agua abaixo, primeiro ao poucos, e depois rapidamente com o mensalao.  O lado do poder por si e da ganancia venceu o moral.  Ainda assim, resta entre as pessoas o ideal de redistribuicao e a ideia; de fato, tem nos ultimos anos fundamento concreto.  So que o modelo que possibilitou, tanto a roubalheira quanto a distribuicao, ja se esgotou.

O segundo mandato da Dilma sera um desafio.  Gradativamente, vao aparecer as maquiagens das contas publicas, nao vai ter dinheiro para gastar e os programas redistributivos vao sofrer.  De certa forma, Aecio perdendo agora vai sair fortalecido para 2018 na medida que o modelo da Dilma e do PT vai se acabando.  Alguns que apoiam a Dilma hoje por motivos tradicionais de esquerda (maior igualdade, maior participacao do Estado) vao comecar a enxergar os limites de expansao do Estado e o retorno negativo.  As universidades publicas, por exemplo, vao continuar carecendo de recursos e as greves ocorrerao com uma frequencia mais intensiva.  Eh possivel tambem que por volta das Olimpiadas, os manifestantes voltam as ruas reclamando as melhorias que nao vao chegar por falta de recursos e pela ma administracao.  No Brasil, gasta-se dinheiro em obras publicas como se fosse o primeiro mundo e entrega-se obras do terceiro mundo.  Uma pena porque a competencia tecnica existe.

Entao, a oposicao hoje precisa encontrar um discurso e uma realidade que vai atender, preservar e consolidar as conquistas e anseios da nova classe media.  A oposicao precisa comecar cobrar e prometer infra estrutura, escolas, saude e uma economia que funciona.  Dilma, pela falta de recursos, vai ter problemas em atender.  O que ela pode fazer para salvar sua administracao sera travar (a contragosto do partido), como promete, a investigacao e punicao da corrupcao.  Ao mesmo tempo, se ela procurar a reforma politica comecando talvez com uma nova constituinte, o fim da reeleicao, e a implantacao do voto distrital talvez consiga um saldo positivo no segundo mandato apesar da nitida piora da economia que provavelmente vira.  Com o barril de petroleo a US$80.00 o barril, ela nao pode contar muito com o pre-sal.  Com Petrobras, loteado e fatiado ela nao pode contar com produtividade de empresa.  Idem a Vale.  Com a China esfriando e voltando mais para seu mercado interno, o boom de commodities ja passou.  Sim, o Brasil pode avancar ainda muito no setor primario mas as dura penas com o novo quadro externo.  Dilma deveria reavaliar a orientacao da politica externa e comercial sul-sul.  Ela deveria pensar nos beneficios de aproveitar a boa onda de crescimento que esta vindo na America do Norte.  Para tanto, uma politica cambial favoravel a industria eh importante e provavelmente ao alcance do novo Ministro da Fazenda.

A oposicao, tanto Aecio, como o PSB e a Rede da Marina, bem como outras forcas, devem juntar e procurar o que ha de melhor (nas palavras da Sra. Silva).  Coligacoes em torno de programas pragmaticos, e fundados num comportamento diferenciado (sem corrupcao), talvez vao conquistar mais espaco entre os eleitores.  A nova classe media busca igualdade de oportunidade e regras claras que valem para todos.  O PT ofereceu um culto mas o retorno moral esta comprometido e ganho material eh declinante.  O Brasil vai ter uma economia mista de estado e mercado mas as regras precisam estar claras com isonomia.  O PT hoje nao tem clareza e nem transparencia.  Ai esta um espaco vazio que uma alternativa politica possa preencher.

Dilma vence, mas o futuro chega.

Toma la, da ca

Os debates embora agressivos estao ficando enfadonhos.  Embora descritos nos jornais como o Fla-Flu, os embates sao previsiveis e ficam na mesmice dos ataques pessoais.  Mesmo as tentativas de levantar fatos novos, tipo Sergio Guerra levando bola de Petrobras, nao soam como novas.  Assim o mano a mano esclarece pouco.  Entretanto, creio que o importante eh que temos a eleicao em segundo turno que prova que as instituicoes politicas estao funcionando do seu jeito. Teremos um vencedor que sera empossado.

Agora, com certeza o “vitorioso” tera que alterar politicas para governar.  Esta claro que a Dilma perdeu a aura de tecnocrata competente.  Mas tambem esta claro que ha desconfianca em torno da competencia do Aecio para melhorar o quadro e oferecer algo realmente diferente.  Tanto a Dilma quanto o Aecio sairam manchados, depois de dar bracadas no mar de lama.

Quem ganhar vai ter a  dura tarefa de construir uma legitimidade mais ampla do que a base eleitoral de 50 por cento.  Nao sei se a Dilma vai ter energia para a tarefa.  O partido eh algo diferente de seus eleitores e o PT ja nao e o partido ideologico que era na decada de 80.  Hoje eh fisiologico como os outros partidos.  Para agradar e agradecer seus votos, a logica demanda que a Dilma continue fatiando o estado e dando emprego para seus “correligionarios”.  Penso que, possivelmente no seu intimo, Dilma queira resistir.  So nao sei se tem ou tera forca.

Aecio, por outro lado, tera um problema semelhante e, embora ele promete cortar pela metade os ministerios, a questao politica no Brasil sempre se resolveu no “toma la, da ca”.  Como eh que o Aecio pode resistir?  Ha uma mudanca cultural em curso mas eh muito lenta.  E ao que parece, corre a parte do Aecio.

O fluxo de demandas que afloram nos protestos eh frustado na eleicao quando o cidadao acaba elegendo os mesmo politicos ou o mesmo tipo de politico. Veja so os resultados no Congresso e nas eleicoes estaduais.  Mudar o quadro exige mudar o “status quo” e a mesmice so vai mudar com mais educacao no sentido de questionamento das posturas tradicionais.  Respeitamos a vontade popular manifesta na sabedoria das urnas mas desconfiamos ao mesmo tempo do outro lado, que vota no outro candidato.  E os politicos, uma vez eleitos, nao prestam mais atencao nos eleitores individuais mas so no seus cabos eleitorais e os “lobbies” que oferecem os recursos financeiros que influenciam a votacao.  Portanto, alem da melhoria de educacao (politica), precisa-se da reforma politica com o voto distrital e tambem a reforma do sistema de financiamento das campanhas politicas.

Como todo mundo esta, na linguaguem popular, de rabo preso, pouco vai acontecer.  Como disse o Darcy Ribeiro, o Brasil vai aos “trancos e barrancos”.  As mudancas estao a caminho mas ainda levam tempo.  A eleicao de 2018 vai ser mais importante do que a eleicao de agora e talvez novas liderancas melhores estarao surgindo.  A populacao, embora ainda joven, esta a cada eleicao mais experiente.  Isto eh bom.

Paciencia e profissao esperanca (ou sera que deveria ser “professar esperanca”).  Vamos entao, com expectativa e emocao, para o 26 de outubro e tambem para o dia seguinte quando veremos onde a porca torce o rabo.

Why Aecio will lose. Why Dilma will lose.

It is a very tight race.  Perhaps the tightest since democracy returned to Brazil.  I have been very impressed by Aecio’s rise but Dilma has grown at the same time.  Before the Oct. 5, election she was polling at around 40 percent.  Now with only two candidates her numbers have grown.  Aecio almost dropped out of the race in September but the attacks on Marina heartened him and his campaign and the Mineiro was able achieve a rather astounding 34 percent of the vote compared to Dilma’s 41 percent.  With only with 7 percentage points of difference, Marina’s voter will be able to tip the scales, perhaps.

I am not sure how many of the voters will go either way but here are some reasons that either Dilma or Aecio could lose.


Reasons Aécio could lose

  • He does not have enough density in the Northeast and North with their preponderance of beneficiaries of social redistribution programs like Bolsa Familia and Mais Medicos.
  • Marina has not transferred her votes to him and she has been undecided in the level of support and unclear in terms of what she wants.
  • Aécio will be gunned down by Lula/Dilma and PT propaganda machine, Just as Marina was.  The PT propaganda machine and the weight of government control of “benefits” are hard to overcome.
  • Aécio needs 65 or more percent of Marina’s 20 million votes and that seems like a goal too far.
  • More people will vote “em branco or nulo” in the second round hurting Aecio more than Dilma.
  • Brazil is essentially conservative and, as the reelection of traditional politicians in the first round shows, people will vote for the incumbent rather than change.
  • Aecio’s discourse on management competency does not resonate with the voters and PT will try to show it is more image than reality.
  • The PSDB is also tainted by corruption and Aecio is personally tainted by diverse shady affairs in Minas.
  • Nationalist propaganda related to giving in to bankers and international interests favors the PT.
  • Aécio’s personal history will become an issue. He is being portrayed as a playboy, a substance abuser and as disrespectful of women.
  • New protestants (Evangelicos) don’t respect Aecio.
  • Aécio is not convincing in his stated plans for continuity of popular social programs: fome zero, bolsa famila, MCMV, Mais médicos
  • Most importantly, Brazil’s new middle class will decide the election and they see the PT continuity as a better option for preserving gains and hope for the future.

Reasons Dilma Cannot Win

  • She is too tainted by the corruption scandals.  People are not accepting the explanation that she was not aware of what was happening with her underlings.
  • People want change after 12 years of PT.
  • The economy is not performing. It’s currently in recession and growth has been disappointing for over 3 years.
  • People therefore are no longer sensing improvements but rather unease and threat. So they ask: Are we better off than 4 years ago and the answer is “maybe no”.  This doubt can be a vote killer.
  • Inflation is over target and eating at gains most heavily among the poor who are Dilma’s electoral base.
  • Formal sector jobs are not becoming available, people sense that desirable positions are not there in spite of low employment.
  • Dilma has a negative personal image. “Ela e’ chata”, similar to Jose Serra on the Tucano side.
  • She does not control and is not favored by the traditional media organizations in print and TV.  Moreover, her implicit threats at media control have the monopolies doubly fearful of her second term so they are going at her hard with all the corruption ammunition the PT has given them.
  • She will be hurt by the same protesters that took to the streets in 2013.
  • The conservative Catholic church establishment is not supporting the PT to the same extent it has in the past.
  • Inefficient program implementation undermines Dilma’s support.
  • The market wants her gone, as does industry and finance capital so although they are providing contributions they are more strongly backing Aecio.

So there is a lot going on both sides and the race will come down to the wire.  I still predict Dilma’s victory but I am out on a limb at this point.

Forbes Article (Oct. 5, 2014) by Kenneth Rapoza with some electoral counts

Social Democrats Face Archrival Workers’ Party In Brazil Election Run-Off

Brazil’s most powerful political parties will go head to head on Oct. 26 in a run-off election between incumbent president Dilma Rousseff and Social Democrat Aecio Neves, who came from a third place position to beat socialist party pick Marina Silva.

Marina’s crash and burn was in part due to recent comments that she was happy keeping the currency even weaker than it already is, and voters in the highly populated south thinking the only party that can really wrestle power from the Workers’ Party is the Social Democrats.

With over 95% of the votes counted by 21:00 local time, Dilma had 41% of the votes while Neves had 34%.

Analysts will now focus on deciphering the next round. Both Dilma and Neves have been rising in the polls. It is unclear whether Marina’s voters will choose Dilma or Neves in the days ahead. New polls will likely come out later this week. The good news for the incumbent is that she was gathering momentum right along with Neves. This indicates that either the undecided voters had made their decisions and/or the Marina voters had migrated to the challenger. Either way, the fact that both Dilma and Neves rose in the polls suggests voters are — in the worst case — evenly split.

Brazilian senator Aécio Neves to take on Dilma Rousseff in an election run off on Oct. 26. To win, he will have to convince more than 65% of Marina Silva’s voters to choose him over Dilma. It will not be easy.

Some 142 million people will vote again on Oct. 26. The largest constituencies are in the wealthy South/Southeast with roughly 77.7 million voters combined.

São Paulo, the biggest city in Brazil, has 31.9 million voters accounting for 22.4% of the vote. This is generally a Social Democrat stronghold. Assuming Neves wins 65% of São Paulo, it would give him 20.7 million votes.

Minas Gerais is the second biggest market for Neves, which he represents as a senator in Brasilia. His home state has 15.2 million voters. Assuming another 65% for Neves would give him 9.8 million, though that might be asking too much. Dilma beat him with 43% of the vote in the first round as it is. He would need every single Marina Silva vote to keep Dilma’s numbers stable in that farming and mining state.

No. 3 Rio de Janeiro could be a toss up. If Rio is split in half, that’s six million for each. Assuming Dilma gets 60% of Bahia, that would give her 6.1 million and Neves four million.

Then there is the fifth largest constituency, located in the deep south. This is Rio Grande do Sul. They have 8.3 million voters. This is also a toss up. While Dilma beat Neves with 43%, Neves wasn’t far behind. Assuming a draw, that’s 4.1 million each.

Combined, the best case scenario for Neves in the top five constituencies gives him 44.6 million and Dilma 33.1 million. Unfortunately for the Social Democrats, there is more to Brazil than the top five.

The biggest differential will be in the North/Northeast states. Dilma runs away with it here. In the rich south, the differential in favor of Neves is smaller. In other words, she has more support from her traditional supporters than Neves has from his in terms of body count.

Sergipe: 54% Dilma, 23% Neves
Alagoas: 52% Dilma, 21% Neves
Pernambuco: 44% Dilma, 5% Neves
Paraiba: 55.6% Dilma, 23% Neves
Rio Grande do Norte: 60% Dilma, 19% Neves
Ceara: 68% Dilma, 15% Neves
Piaui: 70.5% Dilma, 14% Neves
Maranhao: 69.5% Dilma, 11.6% Neves
Tocantins: 50.2% Dilma, 27.6% Neves
Para: 53% Dilma, 27% Neves
Amapa: 51% Dilma, 25% Neves
Roraima: 33% Dilma, 43.6% Neves
Amazonas: 54.4% Dilma, 19.4% Neves
Acre: 29.7% Dilma, 29.8% Neves

In those states, Dilma received 15.6 million votes to Neves’ 4.72 million for a 10.88 differential in favor of the incumbent. Neves needs to receive every vote from Marina in those states, otherwise Dilma takes the North/Northeast popular vote without a fight.

In the wealthier states that went to Neves, the Minas Gerais senator garnered 19.73 million votes to Dilma’s 12.58 million, or a differential of just 7.15 million.

The easiest way to look at it is by taking the total vote count thus far. For Dilma, it’s been 43.26 million voters in her favor versus Neves’ 34.89 million. Marina received 22 million. In order for Neves to win, he needs to get over 65% of the Marina vote. Even at 65% of the Marina vote, Neves adds around 14.3 million to his tally, or 49.1% of the popular vote…not enough to take the presidency in January.

No one is expecting Dilma to walk away with the election at this point. It will be a nail biter.

However, for Neves to skew the elections in his favor he will need a popular figure, most likely from the market, to come out in support of him. Investors will look for hints as to who might be in charge of a Neves Finance Ministry, or what his take is on the foreign exchange rate and inflation. Brazil’s real is currently trading at its lowest level since the financial crisis of 2008-09.

Dilma, meanwhile, has some stats on her side. The poor are getting richer. And so are the middle class. Educational attainment is improving, and the unemployment levels — while not entirely accurate — remain low. She will have to regain trust in constituents tired of political corruption and a general laziness about public service and fair play. She will also continue to make overtures to the market about her plans to change course on economic policy, something investors are looking forward to next year.
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Dilma: Estadista ou nao?

Na vespera, o quadro eleitoral esta chegando a definicao final.  Acredito que Presidente Dilma Rousseff sera eleita, proavavelmente nao no primeiro turno, mas praticamente, sem duvida, no segundo.

Entao coloco a questao:  Quem eh a Presidente Dilma?  Ela eh apenas criacao do ex-Presidente Lula marcando lugar ate 2018 e encarregada de encobrir os problemas estruturais que o PT nao ousou enfrentar?  Ou sera que ela eh realmente a pessoa integra,  com um grau de independencia e que, apesar das amarras politicas, ela podera combater os problemas mais obvios que afetam as pessoas diretamente no seu dia a dia. (Veja as manifestacoes de 2013)  Sera que ela tem a competencia e a vontade de mudar o jogo e realmente combater a corrupcao e reforcar a atuacao da policia e judiciario.  No seu primeiro mandato, pode se entender, que ela foi constrangida por circumstancias politicas.  Sera que agora, em segundo ato, ela podera desencantar e  enfrentar os desafios.  Talvez, articular uma nova base e reunir o melhor na administracao publica e no quadro politico (copiando a ideia da Marina?).  Assim ela podera ser a administradora da fama e atacar nao so a corrupcao mas tambem educacao, saneamento basico e infra-estrutura e quem sabe ate a reforma tributaria, politica e previdenciaria.  No Brasil, ha quadros competentes e nem todo mundo em Brasilia quer apenas a roubalheira.

Se a Dilma for um pouco estadista, e se ela for coerente, com seu proprio discurso (e ate diria: fama) ela pode ser realmente o instrumento util na criacao de uma nova mentalidade governamental.  Ela dara autonomia a policia federal.  Ela deixara de pressionar os tribunais e ela podera usar de uma forma legitima a postura da presidente como quem nao vai tolerar a corrupcao mesmo que seja no seio do proprio governo.  Em 2010, quando ela assumiu o primeiro mandato, ela conquistou espaco independente do Lula atraves da demissao de ministros e outros corruptos.  Hoje, ficou claro, que ela apenas arranhou o superficie.  Num suposto segundo mandato, ela tera que fazer muito mais.  A questao eh se ela tera a vontade, a energia e a possibilidade de escolher os auxiliares competentes e idoneos.

Os problemas economicos que ela enfrentara talvez vao empurrar na direcao de usar o combate a corrupcao como meio de ganhar legitimidade.  Talvez combatendo o que existe de podre lhe dara suporte popular mas assim ela podera apenas dar continuidade a uma administracao modesta como tem feito ate agora.

Se ela nao for estadista e continuar a ser apenas a presidenta comun dos ultimos 4 anos, ela continuara sob o dominio do sistema.   No maximo, apresentara pequenos curativos sem atacar a doenca principal.  Neste caso, o PT continuara lotando o estado,  e o status quo atual prevalecera.   Continuando sem mudar,  vao se agravar os problemas fiscais,  e vai ter problemas, possivelmente graves, com inflacao e crescimento.  A Dilma, eleita em segundo mandato tera oportunidade, mas o peso das herancas malditas (nao so do PT)  cerceara qualquer liberdade de acao a nao ser que ela encontra seu norte e crie seu novo espaco e uma nova imagem politica: alem  do combate a corrupcao, ela tera que fazer muito mais.   Tera que dar espaco para a policia e os tribunais inclusive fazendo nomeacoes de juizes nao comprometidos com a politica partidaria.  Mais importante ainda, sera ter um plano de governo que avanca na acumulacao de capital e investimento o que possibilitara a melhoria de infra-estrutura (mas de uma forma com mais controle e menos malandragem das constutoras).  Ela devera sair mais de Brasilia e articular mais ao nivel dos estados e usar sua autoridade moral de presidente para pressionar os politicos tanto governadores quanto congressistas.

A tarefa com certeza eh dificil mas o momento pode ser de transformacao.  Dilma, eleita com a maioria absoluta dos votos e, com margen razoavel sobre a Marina (ou Aecio), tera a legitimidade das urnas e um tempo para impor sua autoridade.  Ela tera que buscar dentro de si a forca da guerrilheira.  Sera que ela encontra?  Sera que ela quer?  E ainda tera que fazer a coisa certa e evitar erros como tentar ameacar com censura a imprensa.


Observacao editei o ultimo paragrafo e acrescentei Aecio, ja que hoje dia 5/10 ha a possibilidade (suprendente) dele superar a Marina.



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