11 Predictions for Brazil 2021

  1. Bolsonaro will not be impeached or leave office this year.
  2. COVID19 will continue to reap lives and livelihoods up until the end of the year and General Pazuello will leave the Health Ministry.
  3. The economy will not grow more than 1% this year.
  4. Unemployment will continue at 13 % and higher.
  5. Inflation will pick up and be higher than 5% and interest rates (SELIC) will rise above the current 2% mark doubling to 4%.
  6. Ernesto Araujo will be removed from the Foreign Ministry
  7. In spite of continued fires and loss of forest cover, Brazil will continue to export beef and soy to Europe and China and EU-Mercosur Agreement will not be approved this year.  This will be seen as one of the few bright spots in the economy.
  8. Brazil will attract less than 50 billion dollars in FDI.
  9. Police violence will continue to rise and the homicide rate will go up again after falling for the first two years of Bolsonaro’s administration.
  10. Brazil will not gain membership in the OECD in 2021 and Brazil will break through the spending ceiling even as their will be denials of this fact by Economic Minister Guedes.
  11. Brazil will continue to fall behind in education, technology and science as many of Brazil’s best minds will continue to seek and achieve positions abroad.

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