Every January, I post a series of predictions for Brazil’s year.
Here is the link to last year’s forecasts: https://allabroadconsulting.wordpress.com/2021/01/21/11-predictions-for-brazil-2021/
I also a post an evaluation of how my prognosis turned out. Here is the evaluation for last year: https://allabroadconsulting.wordpress.com/2022/01/05/projections-and-corrections-how-did-our-brazil-predictions-for-2021-turn-out/
- Lula and Bolsonaro will reach the second round and Lula will win the Presidential election with 54% of the valid votes.
- Lula’s former and vanquished opponent in 2006, Geraldo Alckmin, will be his Vice-President.
- While Jair Bolsonaro will not be reelected, his sons and ardent followers will continue to occupy elected posts. Flavio is currently a Senator and will not stand for election, while Eduardo will be reelected to the House and younger brother Carlos will also be reelected to the Rio city council if he chooses to run again.
- Any attempt by Bolsonaro to remain in power through a coup or putsch will be unsuccessful as he does not have the undivided support of the military.
- While harshly critical and suspicious of a new PT administration headed by Lula, the military will accommodate as they did in the previous left-wing administrations.
6.Brazil’s GDP will not grow more than 1% in 2022 due to instability and wait and see attitude created by the election.
7. Inflation will continue above 10% as the government will increase electioneering and spending.
8. Interest rates will rise at least two times and reach 14% percent. However, the Central Bank will not lose its independence.
9. Foreign Direct Invest will be less than 60 billion dollars in 2022 and will favor telecom with 5G and oil, gas and alternative energy and infra-structure.
Covid and General
10. Brazilians already with a vaccination rate of 70% will continue to seek the jab, boosters and reliance on the public health system and Covid deaths will top out at less than 700 thousand total for the pandemic. By the end of 2021, there were already more than 620 thousand deaths attributed to COVID.
11. Brazil will continue to suffer from a brain drain and diaspora. As in 2021, more than 40 thousand Brazilians will be detained at the US southern border for attempting illegal entry into the US.